Has Trump softened with China?

S P Seth

Even though China was right, left and center of Trump’s withering criticism as presidential candidate, that stridency was toned down after he took over as president. We had the dramatics of the phone call from Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen congratulating Trump on his election, considered unusual after the US had established diplomatic relations with China in 1979.

He wanted to use Taiwan as a lever to reset US-China relations, indicating that such a concession on the part of the US must have a quid pro quo. But when Beijing stood fast on its unalterable one China principal, Trump quietly retreated from his much touted position that Taiwan was still somehow an unresolved question. This he did in a February phone call with President Xi Jinping.

And during Xi Jinping’s recent US visit, the first such contact between the Chinese leader and the new US president, there was much pomp and ceremony but very little substance. Everything from South China Sea to China’s unfair trade advantage from currency manipulation remained unresolved, though Trump now believes that China is not a currency manipulator

The Chinese agreed to a “hundred-day-plan”—whatever that means-- to address the trade imbalance but there were no details about how this might be achieved. Indeed, President Trump told reporters after the first round of talks that, “We had a long discussion already. So far I have gotten nothing. But we have developed a great friendship.” Apparently, apart from their “great friendship” the two leaders failed to proceed ahead on any of the contentious issues between their two countries.

However, two important developments happened during and immediately after Xi’s US visit. One was the US missile attack from a naval strike force in the Mediterranean on a Syrian air base from which the Bashar al-Assad regime reportedly earlier launched a chemical attack on rebel held territory (denied by the regime and its Russian backers).

Trump informed President Xi of this attack during their after dinner dessert in a lyrical recounting of its power and pinpoint accuracy against the backdrop of the inhuman chemical attack. The US action, according to Trump, was endorsed by Xi.

Whether or not Xi was approving of the US action is not clear as the Chinese have not commented on this; though they didn’t seem supportive of the Russian position of backing Assad completely indicated by their abstention on the subsequent Security Council resolution.

However, if the naval strike on the Syrian air base was intended to strike awe among the Chinese about the US military power that would be questionable, simply because China is not Syria. What might have surprised the Chinese, and indeed other countries, was the willingness of the new US President to challenge Russia, that was supposed to be a new ally in the war against IS. And that would be worrisome, indicating the impulsive nature of the new President.

Much more relevant for the Chinese is President Trump’s policy towards North Korea, propounded at times on Twitter, as with other important pronouncements, impressing on Beijing to use their clout against Pyongyang as they alone have the power to bring sense to the country’s dictator. And if China failed to do this, the US would act on its own. Considering that the US has moved its naval armada closer the Korean peninsula, the message to Beijing and to the world that the US might act alone is rather apocalyptic.

In an interview with The Financial Times, Trump had this to say: “China has great influence over North Korea. And China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won’t.” And: “If they do, that will be very good for China, and if they don’t, it won’t be good for anyone.” Trump continued, “If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will. That is all I am telling you.”

To reinforce Trump’s message, the US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, warned that the US would “no longer take excuses from China.” And: “They need to show us how concerned they are. They need to put pressure on North Korea. The only country that can stop North Korea is China…We’re going to say what we think, and we’re going to move the ball and that’s what this is about.”

However, Trump’s tone has lately softened on China. He has said that after talking to President Xi he now has a better understanding of China’s difficult situation. The fact that, despite all the implied threats from the US and pressure from China, Pyongyang still went ahead with its most recent missile test—even though it fizzled out--would indicate that North Korea’s dictator is impervious to threats.

Indeed, Trump has even declared that China is no longer a currency manipulator, which might mean that heat might be taken out of the trade issue, averting fear of a trade war.

Indeed, Trump has said of his Chinese counterpart that, “We have a good relationship, we have great chemistry together.” And he added, “I think his wife is terrific.” In contrast, he said of Russia that, “ We’re not getting along with Russia at all.” He described the relationship with Moscow as having hit “an all-time low.”

China is reportedly happy over reversal of some of Trump’s pronouncements of serious charges about currency manipulation. Shen Dingli, an international relations expert from Shanghai’s Fudan University, went so far as to pronounce that, “He [Trump] will be the best US president for China compared with any previous US president”,  adding that: “He is the most friendly US president ever.”

But with Trump, nothing is certain with many of his pronouncements uttered through social media platforms, suggesting ad hoc policymaking. Just ask the Russians. Not so long ago, Putin was Trump’s political idol in some ways. Now, he looks like being in the doghouse. Trump administration is probably the most unpredictable in the annals of the US history.

Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.

Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo. com.au