Tense standoff in South China Sea
S P
SETH
The tense standoff between China and Vietnam continues in South
China Sea. It started when China deployed a giant oil rig in the waters with
contested sovereignty. Vietnam resisted it resulting in skirmishes between
their naval vessels. So far there has been no exchange of firepower, with the
incidents confined to ramming of ships and use of water cannons. According to
Hanoi’s account, “On May 4, Chinese ships rammed two Vietnamese Sea Guard
vessels. Chinese ships, with air support, sought to intimidate Vietnamese
vessels. Water cannon was used.” The contested islands, Paracels and Spratlys,
and the waters around them are said to be rich in oil and fishery. The recent
anti-China riots in Vietnam added another dimension to an already difficult
relationship.
China also claims much of the South China Sea as its territorial
waters. Which makes it an issue that also concerns the United States. The US is
involved for two reasons. First, it has a string of security alliances with
some regional countries that are at dispute with China over the sovereignty
question, like Japan in the East China Sea, and the Philippines in the South
China Sea. Though the US doesn’t have any security treaty with Vietnam, both
Hanoi and Washington are developing close ties, which might also come to
encompass military relations.
Who would have thought that Vietnam and the US would start coming
together, considering the history of the war that brought so much destruction
to Vietnam? Indeed, the US waged war against Vietnam in the sixties and parts
of the seventies to prevent the spread of communism in the region from, what
was then called the domino theory. And in that long struggle, communist China
was Vietnam’s political and strategic ally. But since the occupation by China
of the Paracel islands in 1974 which Vietnam claimed, and their contested
sovereignty over the Spratlys, their relations have never been the same. This
new bout of tensions and skirmishes is bringing the US and Vietnam closer. The
US state department spokeswoman, for instance, said that Washington was
“strongly concerned about dangerous conduct and intimidation by vessels [of
China] in the disputed area.” Beijing’s response has been dismissive, with its
foreign ministry spokeswoman saying that the deployment of the oil rig had
nothing to do with the US or Vietnam. In other words, China was in its own
territorial waters.
The second reason for US concern over China’s control over much of
the South China Sea is that Beijing might interfere with the freedom of
navigation through its busy sea-lanes adversely affecting world trade and
movement of its naval fleet. China and the US have almost collided in the South
China Sea recently. Last December, for instance, when China’s new aircraft
carrier, the Liaoning, was patrolling contested waters of the South China Sea, it
came close to clashing with a US cruiser shadowing it at a distance. The US
ship reportedly saved the situation by taking evasive action. Earlier, in 2009,
there was another incident that might have got out of hand. The possibility of
more such incidents and worse cannot be ruled out. While China would like to
drive the US out of Asia-Pacific, Washington seems equally determined to
maintain its naval supremacy.
One puzzling thing, though, about China’s assertion of power in the
region is: why is Beijing virtually antagonizing almost all its regional
neighbours (it has maritime boundary disputes with six of its Asia-Pacific
neighbours), pushing them to strengthen and/or forge new defence links with the
United States? It might be recalled that Deng Xiaoping, the leader who put
China on the new path in the post-Mao period, had counseled that China should “hide
our capabilities and bide our times”. At that time, Beijing was in the process
of modernizing the country by growing its economy and military capabilities. In
the last few years, Beijing has apparently come to the conclusion that it no
longer needs to hide its capabilities. It is now the second largest economy in
the world, and is emerging as a superpower with military capability to match
it. It might not be itching for a fight but, at the same time, is not squeamish
about proclaiming its writ over much of the region by way of asserting
sovereignty over the surrounding seas, as the US did in the 19th
century in the Western Hemisphere by way of proclaiming the Monroe Doctrine. It
sure is creating serious tensions with some of its neighbours like Vietnam, the
Philippines and Japan. There is risk in
this of starting a conflagration, but Beijing would seem to think that these
risks, if at all, are manageable.
There are reasons for this line of thinking. First and foremost,
China would like to believe that it has time on its side, considering its long
history. Though the US is still the top power, it might not remain in this
league for long. By most accounts, China is likely to overtake the US as an
economic power in about a decade. In the meantime, it is militarily powerful
enough to create sufficient risk for the US to keep away from any major
involvement in a regional conflict. In other words, the US might voice much
support for its allies and provide them some weapons and logistical support, it
would, most likely, stay away from any direct military confrontation with
China. Therefore, for China, the risk of
pushing its regional sovereignty is manageable.
Second, even though China has maritime boundary disputes with a
number of regional countries, it is unlikely that they will all form a united
front against China. The recent ASEAN meeting in Myanmar failed to produce a
joint statement critical of China. The most it did was to caution restraint and
peaceful resolution. At the same time, they have growing trade ties with China.
They would hate to lose China’s expanding market. Third, although the US is
critical of China, it doesn’t seem keen to get involved militarily. There is a
general feeling that the US has been weakened by its wars in Afghanistan and
Iraq, and hit hard by the global financial crisis. Therefore, China might be
right to think that time is on its side and if it were to persist with its
sovereignty agenda, the chips will fall in place.
The only caveat, though, is that China has enough political, social
and economic issues to resolve that might pose serious domestic problems for
the Communist Party’s monopoly power. But the pursuit of national power,
against the backdrop of China’s humiliation in the 19th and right
through to mid-20th century appears a sufficiently powerful banner
to rally people around the Party. However, things rarely work out smoothly and
many things can go wrong. In that case, we might be in for dangerous times.
Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.
Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo. com. au
