Flashpoint South China Sea

S P SETH

Nobody really knows how the South China Sea sovereignty issue will be sorted out. It featured in one way or the other at the recent Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting and the follow up East Asia summit in Laos. So far, China is resolute about its sovereignty claims regarding islands/islets/rocks that scatter around these waters. Indeed, it has dredged out new ones and has justified building airfields and other military structures as security measures to defend its sovereignty. Beijing has flatly rejected the recent ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in Hague, which favoured the Philippines that had sought the court’s arbitration on China’s construction of military structures on Mischief Reef in the Spratly archipelago, claimed by Manila. In a sweeping judgment on China’s sovereignty claims, it rejected its “nine dash line” that tends to turn almost all of South China Sea into its exclusive lake.

An adverse finding from Hague court was expected but not with such vehemence. It said, “The Tribunal concluded that there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the ‘nine-dash line’”. And it found that the artificial islands that China has been building did not create extended maritime zones as they couldn’t naturally sustain human habitation. It, therefore declared that “certain sea areas [which China claimed] are within the excusive economic zone” of the rival claimant, the Philippines. And worse still, the tribunal found that “China had caused severe harm to the coral reef environment and violated its obligation to preserve and protect fragile ecosystems and the habitat of depleted, threatened, or endangered species.”

Not surprisingly, and considering that China had boycotted the tribunal, Beijing said that the ruling of the court, “is null and void and has no binding force.” China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, said that the ruling has placed the South China Sea “in a dangerous situation of intensifying tension and confrontation.” And he called the unilaterally initiated (by the Philippines) case and the resultant ruling a “sheer political farce in the disguise of law…” He added that, “The attempts of any power to harm or deny China’s sovereignty and maritime interests in any form will be futile.”

And to this end, China is not averse to showing its military muscle by making it clear that it would use all the necessary measures to protect its sovereignty in South China as it sees it. China has been holding military exercises, and reportedly even cut off outside access to parts of South China Sea to host these exercises. It has also conducted combat air patrols in the region, which are slated to become a “regular” feature in the future, according to its state news agency, Xinhua. In other words, Beijing is steadfast on its position and is leaving no one in doubt that it means what it says.

China’s regional neighbours, at odds with China over the sovereignty issue, are reluctant to put up a united front. The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), for instance, has not been able to put up a joint front on this issue as they look to China for trade and investment. Besides, China is politically and militarily powerful. The diplomatic option, sought to be exercised by the Philippines, has apparently failed, as China doesn’t accept the Hague court’s authority and writ. In any case, China’s position is clear that it has sovereignty over the islands and over much of the South China Sea waters.  

The only way to confront China would be to team up with the United States. The US is trying to rally regional countries to exercise their right of freedom of navigation through Chinese-claimed waters and islands, which the US has done on a few occasions and is determined to continue doing. China has said that it might declare an air-defence identification zone requiring aircraft passing through the area to identify themselves. However, the US and its allies, Australia, for instance, might ignore this, potentially leading to military confrontation.

Beijing believes that the US is creating trouble in China’s backyard. It regards the US as an outside power that should stay out of regional affairs. But for the US ‘interference’, in Beijing’s view, the region will be peaceful based on China’s ‘historical’ sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and much of the waters surrounding them. The US, on the other hand, rejects China’s contention that it is an outside power seeking to stir up trouble, citing its large Pacific coast and vital economic, strategic and political interests. During a recent Australia visit, US vice-president, Joe Biden, was adamant that the US would remain a Pacific power. As if addressing China and regional doubters about the US stamina and determination, he said in Sydney, “We are not going anywhere. And that is vital because our presence in the region… is essential to maintaining peace and stability, without which the economic growth and prosperity I believe would falter.”

And he added, “America is the linchpin and we want to ensure the sea lanes are secure, the skies remain open. That is how to maintain the free flow of commerce, that is the life blood of this region.” To fortify the US resolve, Biden went on to say, “We have the most capable ground forces in the world and unmatched ability to project naval and air power to any and every corner of the globe, and simultaneously.” Talking specifically of US commitment to Pacific region, Biden said, “And we’ve committed to put over 60 per cent of our fleet and our most advanced military capabilities in the Pacific by 2020.” 

Biden’s choice of Australia to reiterate this commitment is interesting, as it was here that President Obama had announced the US “pivot to Asia” in 2011 during his visit to Australia. In a sense, it is designed to bolster the flagging confidence of regional countries that are not keen to confront China, being unsure of the US’ resolve and staying power. There is a sense, rightly or wrongly, that the US is a declining power and is over-stretched, while China is in ascendance. As if to calm some of the frayed nerves in Australia about US politics with Donald Trump as Republican presidential nominee, Biden said, “Don’t worry about our election. The better angels in America will prevail.” But that is more a prayer than a policy prescription.

The point, though, is that both China and the US are committed to their respective positions. Which is that China has sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and will defend it with all its power. The US, on the other hand, is determined to challenge this by exercising the right of free navigation through Chinese-claimed South China Sea islands and surrounding waters. And if they mean what they say, one cannot rule out military confrontation at some point,  with unpredictable results.

Note: This article was first printed in the Daily Times.

Contact; sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au