China’s Bo Xilai to continue haunting the CCP

By Sushil Seth

China’s political tempest, unleashed early this year with the removal of Chongqing metropolis’ powerful boss and party leader, Bo Xilai, is still causing low level disturbance which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership is trying to contain. And this is being done at two levels.

The first is how best to deal with Gu Kailai, Bo’s wife, without mixing it up with her husband’s Party situation. She has already been tried for murdering the British businessman, Neil Heywood and given a suspended death sentence. Which, in some ways, is more sinister because the issue can be revisited depending on the exigencies of the situation at a given time. And she can be forced to sing any song based on the lyrics written by the CCP headquarters, implicating her husband or others.

One of the mitigating circumstances that has saved her from the gallows, for the time being at least, is that she was mentally unhinged at the time of poisoning Heywood because of the maternal instinct to protect her son, Bo Guagua. Heywood had allegedly threatened to destroy Bo over a failed real estate deal. But this is dismissed by Heywood’s friends, who did everything to smooth Bo’s induction into the British educational environment.

The second issue is how to deal with Bo Xilai, believed to have been seeking to mobilize a Cultural Revolution kind of frenzy. That is what Premier Wen Jiabao feared at the time. Bo was engaged in some wide-ranging campaign to target gangsters and mafia elements, leading to the arrest and torture of some people. He was also playing on the widening income disparities between the rich and the poor, using Maoist red banner as a rallying point.

His police chief, Wang Lijun, was instrumental in a wide-ranging violent police crackdown in Chongqing at Bo’s behest. Wang later sought asylum in the American consulate in Chengdu (not granted) and spilled the beans on Gu’s murder of Neil Heywood.  Despite the odious side of Bo’s violence, many in Chongqing reportedly still remember his measures to help poor.

Bo, though, was pushing his political button too hard to capitalize on the Mao legend with the Chinese people to reach one of the highest prizes of a place in the 9-member standing committee of the CCP, which is China’s ultimate governing body.  And he apparently had some support within the party hierarchy. Which made the dominant party leadership nervous and keen to prevent him from a place in the standing committee, and then using it as a platform to subvert the system and tailor it to his political ambitions.

But a chain of events turned the tables on Bo Xilai when his police chief, Wang Lijun, sought asylum at the US consulate in Chengdu. He spilled the beans on Gu’s murder of Neil Haywood, and other gory stuff of torture and killings under Bo’s political dispensation, of which Wang was the principal instrument and for which he would be separately tried at some point of time.

All this was happening to coincide with the National People’s Congress session in March. It was an opportune time for the ruling faction to remove Bo from his Chongqing leadership position and from the politburo. And that is where he is languishing, possibly in some sort of detention, to face charges at a later time.

Gu’s case was a priority to get it out of international headlines as China’s new Lady Macbeth after Mao’s wife, Jiang Qing, who played a major role in organizing Red Guards in the Cultural Revolution turning the country upside down.

 Bo Xilai is likely to face charges of violent breach of party discipline, including corruption and whatever else can be thrown at him. He is likely to be expelled from the party, and might even be charged with multiple other stuff. In this way both Gu and Bo will become non-persons before the transition to the new Party leadership later in the year at the 18^th Party Congress. Even though it looks like a very neat script, there is always a danger of things not quite working as planned.

Some believe that that Bo and his wife were framed, as the former was threatening to undermine the existing cozy system of a nexus between political and economic power in the current structure.

Indeed, China’s party echelons seem divided over the way Gu and Bo cases be handled. That is probably why Gu’s sentence is a bit tentative allowing the CCP time to make up its mind finally over time.

 The so-called liberals in the CCP suspect that Gu and Bo might receive lenient treatment because of their lineage, both being the children of revolutionary heroes. While the Left (Maoists) believe that Bo has been framed and Gu’s murder charge is a way to get at him. According to one Chinese professor, “The group of capitalist roaders [the terminology used against Mao’s enemies in the Cultural Revolution] has brought down the socialist roader”, meaning Bo Xilai. 

Professor Han Deqiang reportedly added, “This means crisis and turmoil for China.” Indeed, the feelings are so high among some Chinese netizens (on the internet) that they believe Gu’s picture on the Chinese TV at the time of her trial was indeed her double, being so plump compared to her real image.

The attempt by some to posit Bo as some kind of a popular hero is overdrawn. Bo and his wife were highly privileged and powerful couple because of the system in which they operated, with their son studying abroad and driving flash cars. And they were also privileged, being the scions of revolutionary leaders.

In other words, it was more like a power grab by Bo to reach among the top nine standing committee members and then to maneuver to capture power. But he was outmaneuvered and lost.

However, this might not be the last word on the subject because Bo’s image as the personification of the Maoist ideal of an equal and revolutionary society will likely haunt the CCP. And if he is sent to the purgatory, he might even become a martyr figure as the true heir of Mao’s legend. 

Flashpoints in Asia-Pacific

S P SETH

While Mao Zedong was the founder of communist China, Deng Xiaoping was the architect of its economic miracle and great power resurgence. Even as China was going through spectacular economic growth during the eighties and nineties, Deng cautioned the country’s leaders to “bide your time and hide your capabilities.” The first part of his advice was spot on as China was navigating the difficult task of building and modernizing in an international environment not entirely favorable to the country. By concentrating on economic growth while maintaining relatively low international political profile right up to the beginning of the new century, China is now the world’s second largest economy with its high international political and military profile on display for any country or countries doubting its resolve and strength.

While China’s leaders did bide their time as suggested by Deng, there is some argument if they are a bit hasty in projecting and asserting their power. The argument arises in the context of China’s increasingly tense relationship with some of its regional neighbors on the question of contested sovereignty over the island chains in the South China Sea that it claims in entirety. China’s parliament passed a law to this effect in 1992, thus excluding any regional claimant(s) from what it regards as its internal jurisdiction. In other words, any external interference to thwart Chinese sovereignty will be resisted and excluded. But China was still lacking in political and military muscle to enforce its sovereign control. Therefore, while continuing to insist that South China Sea was its territorial sea, Beijing also let it be known that it was willing to sort out issues through negotiations and/or through some sort of joint exploration mechanism for its rich underwater resources.

But nothing came of it as Beijing continued to claim exclusive sovereignty over the island chains of Spratly and Paracel islands. This island chain(s) is also contested by Vietnam, as well as the Philippines, among other regional countries.  And this has led to some naval incidents between China and Vietnam, as well as between China and the Philippines. Like China in the early nineties, Vietnam has recently passed legislation enshrining its sovereignty over these islands. Which, in turn, has led China to deploy a garrison on the islands to assert and safeguard its territoriality. It has also founded Sansha city in the South China Sea to cement its control over 2 million square kilometers of territorial waters. How all this will play out is difficult to say, but South China Sea is becoming a regional flashpoint with unpredictable consequences.

Vietnam and the Philippines are obviously no match for a resurgent and powerful China. But their growing security ties with the United States will raise the stakes. While the US maintains a neutral position on the sovereignty issue, it favors a code of conduct between China and the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) for dealing with disputes in the South China Sea. China, on the other hand, is not willing to formalize the issue to give it the character of a territorial dispute. China had a victory of sorts when a recent ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting in Cambodia failed to issue an agreed communiqué to avoid any mention of the South China Sea issue. Being considerably beholden to China for economic aid and political support, the host of the meeting, Cambodia’s foreign affairs minister, ruled out a communiqué because “ I have told my colleagues that the meeting of the ASEAN foreign ministers is not a court, a place to give a verdict about the dispute.” With its growing power and considerable economic leverage, China is seeking to shape the regional agenda to its advantage.

Will it prevail? It will obviously be a tough fight, as the United States is not wiling to be edged out of the region. The US regards itself as a Pacific power with its considerable economic and strategic interests. It is still the dominant military power, with a large naval fleet deployed in the region and a nexus of security ties with a number of regional countries, including Japan, South Korea and Australia. In expounding the US interest to see a peaceful South China Sea, the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, has maintained that, “No nation can fail to be concerned by the increase in tensions, the uptick in confrontational rhetoric and disagreement over resource exploitation.” And she has urged that the disputes between China and its regional neighbors be resolved “without coercion, without intimidation, without threats and without use of force.” China’s message for the United States basically is to butt out of the region. But that is where the issue has the potential of starting an accidental military clash or, even, something bigger. For instance, China’s shadowing of US naval movements through South China Sea might create an ugly situation, as there have recently been some naval incidents.

China is a rising power. And it is determined to make it to the top. The United States and its regional allies in Asia-Pacific are determined to check and counter-balance it. China appears confident. There is a sense that China might have to tough it out for some years until the United States is too tired from its financial woes and military overreach to pick up a fight. Even if this analysis is true, the transitional period of 5 to 10 years that China might need to establish its primacy will be hazardous, as the United States and its regional allies seek to confront China. The situation remains tense both with the Philippines and Vietnam. There have already been some naval incidents. In the midst of it all an arms race is going on, with countries in the region buying the latest in weaponry. China’s own defense expenditure has been rising at double digit figures in the last few years. The South China Sea ownership issue is also tied up with freedom of navigation, as a significant part of international trade, including oil, passes through these strategically important waters.

At the same time, there are problems between China and Japan in the East China Sea over ownership of Senkaku islands, resulting in some unpleasant naval incidents. And Japan happens to be an important security ally of the United States. North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and the unresolved issue of Korean unification is another live issue, with China committed to protect North Korea. The status of Taiwan is also a flashpoint, with China regarding it as a renegade province and determined to use force to bring about unification if Taipei were to declare independence.

The immediate flashpoint is likely to be South China Sea centered on the status of the Spratly and Paracel islands, and the passage through it of US naval ships that China might seek to impede or intercept at some point. In other words, the great game in the Asia-Pacific is starting in earnest and there is no knowing how it will end.

Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.