Xi Jinping’s China

S P SETH

The Party is over—that is the 19h National Congress of the Communist Party of China. It was done with fanfare, though it was widely expected to deliver a thumping endorsement of Xi Jinping, now in the same league as Mao Zedong. It was sad to see his predecessors, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, trailing behind Xi in the staged procession on the dais looking like pathetic figures from a distant past acknowledging, by their presence, their downgrading and by the same act bestowing even greater legitimacy on the new order enshrining Xi’s pre-eminence. At one time, in the TV pictures, Hu Jintao sought to talk to XI about something or the other but the new ‘emperor’ just had no time for his immediate predecessor.

From all the accounts of Xi’s great achievements in the five years he has been the general secretary of the CPC and president of China, it would appear that the intervening period between Deng Xiaoping’s death and Xi’s ascension was time lost. And before the party conference, there was a lot of build up to highlight all these achievements. Indeed, an advertising supplement from Chinese authorities in the Sydney Morning Herald featured a report of an entire exhibition at the Beijing Exhibition Hall on September 25. The report said, “The exhibition showcased the country’s progress over the past five years under the leadership of the CPC with Mr Xi as the core.” With Xi at the “core”, he is now the personification of the CPC and, for that matter, the state because the two tend to be indistinguishable. And he has a Dream to make China great again.

Xi Jinping now has his own, “Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” enshrined in the Party constitution. And this will be: “A guide to action for the entire party and all the Chinese people to strive for.” And with this as a guide, China will achieve global leadership by the middle of the century, with CPC still at the helm of affairs. There will be none of this ‘nonsense’ about Western democracy, human rights, freedom of speech and that kind of stuff. China will strive for social stability and orderly growth.

In his speech to the National Congress, Xi sought to broadly lay down China’s broad trajectory. He said that now that China had met the basic needs of its people, it would next work to become a “great modern socialist country” and, by 2035, a global leader in innovation. A second phase, of becoming a global leader in “national strength and international influence”, would take until the middle of the century.

This will go hand-in-hand with transitioning China from rapid growth to high quality development. Which would mean integrating advanced manufacturing, internet, big data and artificial intelligence into the “real economy.” In all this hoopla, there was no mention of the other China of nearly 500 million people, about 40 per cent of China’ population, that live on less than $5.50 per day, according to the World Bank.

China has undoubtedly made great economic strides. But it is necessary to keep a balanced perspective, as pointed out by the governor of People’s Bank of China, Zhou Xiochuan, who has reportedly said, “If we are too optimistic when things go smoothly, tensions build up, which could lead to a sharp correction, what we call ‘Minsky moment’”, referring to the late American economist, Hyman Minsky who cautioned against too much money in the system fueling speculation that might lead to financial collapse. Zhou said that China’s debt was very high. According to the World Bank, China’s overall debt to GDP ratio, both public and private, was 304 per cent. Which led financial rating agencies, Moody and Standard and Poor to downgrade China’ sovereign debt rating.  

Be that as it may, China is determined to push ahead. In the area of global fight against climate change, for instance, Xi promised a “revolution in energy production” by building an energy sector that was “clean, low carbon, safe and efficient”. At a time when Trump is dumping climate change and open markets, China is promoting its credentials.

XI was very emphatic on the question of safeguarding China’ sovereign interests with a modernizing military force. He said that, “No one should expect China to swallow anything that undermines its interests…”, like China’s “steady progress” of construction of islands in the South China Sea. Dwelling on China’s  “core” national assets, Xi issued a warning against Taiwan’s independence in any form.

Within the country, he announced the continuation of the anti-corruption campaign, which has helped to get rid of his political foes.

And as of now, with the Party Congress now over, Xi is the undisputed ruler of China, with a Standing Committee and Politburo ready to do his bidding. Indeed, he has not even chosen or announced his political successor who, by convention, should succeed him after his second term, in 2022. Which has given currency to the view that Xi might choose to stay on as the party’s general secretary and the country’s president for an indeterminate period.

During Xi’s presidency, what has perhaps attracted most attention internationally is his much trumpeted One Belt, One Road project to connect the world through a network of road, rail, air, and maritime channels, with all ending up in China. It is the new vision to revive China’s glory as part of the Chinese Dream, with China once again as the Middle Kingdom. With China prepared to lend money for many of these incipient projects, it has excited interest and excitement among some countries.

But Australia has chosen to stay out of it for strategic reasons.  Interestingly, Lobsang Sangay, who was elected Tibet’s political leader by Tibetan diaspora some years ago, evoked his homeland’s example as a warning to the misplaced enthusiasm about this much hyped up Chinese project. Speaking recently at the National Press Club here in Canberra, he reportedly cautioned Australia, and by implication other countries, against the Chinese sponsored One Belt, one Road project, citing Tibet as a case study of how it was annexed through one such highway project. Sangay’s address is worth quoting at some length.

He said, “If you understand the Tibetan story, the Chinese government [before the military takeover in the fifties] started building a road—our first ever highway in Tibet.

“Now we were promised peace and prosperity with the highway, and our parents and grand parents joined in building the road… so my parents told me the Chinese soldiers with guns were so polite, so nice, the kids used to taunt them and taunt them, they always smiled… Then they built the road.

“Once the road reached Lhasa—the capital city of Tibet--- first trucks came, then tanks came. Soon, Tibet was occupied.”

He continued, “Then another strategy they deployed was divide and rule, co-opting our ruling elite… They were paid, I think, in Australian context, huge consultation fees [a reference to how China is using this strategy in Australia to co-opt some of its elites].”

He elaborated: “So what you see in Australia and around the world—co-optation of ruling elites, getting high consultation fees, business leaders supporting the Chinese line of argument---we have seen all that in Tibet. It started with the road. So that was the consequence of One Belt, One Road in Tibet.” And now it will be the world. Sixty-eight countries reportedly have signed up with the Chinese project and Beijing is lining up more countries. The estimated cost is anywhere from $1 trillion to 4 trillion.

Take Pakistan’s case. The Dawn newspaper exposed a detailed 231-page Chinese plan for its 15-year infrastructure roll out in Pakistan. Dawn’s Khurram Husain described it (as quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald}, as “a deep and broad-based penetration of most sectors of Pakistan’s economy as well as its society by Chinese enterprises and culture.”