North Korea is China’s Nightmare
By Sushil Seth
North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are proving a major headache for China. Pyongyang recently tested a second atomic device; with much higher yield that the one in 2006.
To compound matters, it is also perfecting its missile technology with a series of tests.
In other words, it is defying the world to pursue its nuclear course.
In the past, even though Pyongyang has gone its own way in pursing its nuclear ambitions, it has at least been not as dismissive of China’s concerns.
Indeed, by participating in the six-nation talks (till recently) in Beijing, it showed some consideration for China. And, by the same token, it expected Beijing to play a sympathetic role.
Just when it seemed North Korea might unwind its nuclear ambitions (it shut down its Yongbyon reactor in 2007), things started to go wrong.
North Korea has now restarted its nuclear program with greater vigor. And it has abandoned the venue of the six-nation talks in Beijing.
It has walked away from the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War. And it has threatened to hit back at those contemplating any hostile action, especially South Korea.
North Korea’s brinkmanship is all the more dangerous now that China seems to be losing control over its communist neighbor.
In other words, North Korea has come to increasingly distrust China.
Why is it so? Because, from Pyongyang’s viewpoint, China has failed to deliver.
North Korea wanted a sequential deal and believed that the 2007 agreement was a step in that direction.
What it meant was that Pyongyang’s nuclear disarmament will be a step-by-step exercise with consequent action from the United States and others in terms of energy supplies, diplomatic normalization, aid and trade concessions and so forth.
And China was supposed to ensure its implementation as per Pyongyang’s interpretation.
But, in Pyongyang’s view, it wasn’t proceeding that way. It felt that the United States simply wanted North Korea to abandon its nuclear program. Only then, and after full verification, it might become entitled to the advantages of the new nuclear deal.
Pyongyang had come to lean on China for a favorable (to it) conclusion of the six-party diplomatic parleys. Instead, it has seen Beijing join the US and others in castigating it for its nuclear and missile testing.
From Pyongyang’s viewpoint, it had no option but to ratchet up the tension by going ahead with its nuclear program and gain the attention of the world, especially of the new Obama administration.
This is obviously a dangerous game Pyongyang is playing.
The US response to Pyongyang’s brinkmanship is pointedly sharp. Attending a recent security conference in Singapore, the US defense secretary, Robert Gates, warned that, “We will not stand idly by as North Korea builds the capability to wreak destruction on any target in the region or on us.”
And he went on to say, “…we will not accept North Korea as a nuclear state.”…
The US is worried not only on account of Pyongyang’s emergent nuclear capability, but also because it could become the conduit for transfer of nuclear materials and technology (as it has done before) to others similarly disposed.
As Robert Gates said in Singapore, “The transfer of nuclear weapons or material by North Korea to states or non-state entities would be considered a grave threat to the US and our allies.” And for that, “we would hold North Korea accountable.”
In this nuclear chess game, Pyongyang is apparently playing for high stakes. But there is a method in this madness.
Considering North Korea’s overwhelming dependence on China for energy supplies, food, and trade, Beijing shouldn’t have much difficulty in reading the riots act to ensure compliance. But it is wary of this. And there are reasons for this.
The most important reason is that that China doesn’t have much leverage in North Korea’s internal polity. The country is hermetically sealed with the Kim dynasty controlling the levers of power.
With Kim-Il-sung, the great leader (now dead), his son, dear leader, Kim Jong-il, (the current ruler) and his presumptive successor, his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, (gaining currency as the young leader), the country hearkens back to the medieval ages of ghosts and goblins.
What it means for China is that short of bringing down the whole house of the Kims and the country with it by tightening economic and political screws, its options are rather limited.
And this Beijing doesn’t seem keen to do, because this might unleash all sorts of unpredictable and uncontrollable sequence of events.
First, of course, is the unthinkable. Which is, that faced with their destruction, the Kim Jong-il and North Korea’s ruling establishment might actually unleash their destructive weaponry on South Korea.
Which is likely to bring the US into the fray because of their alliance and the presence of US troops in South Korea.
How will China react to this chain of events is anybody’s guess?
China, in any case, is unlikely to become a party to any kind of cataclysmic change in North Korea that it might not be able to channel or control.
Therefore, it is unlikely to bring down the regime or become party to any kind of international action (through the UN Security Council or otherwise) that might push North Korea into desperation.
Even without a military conflagration unleashed by North Korea, its abrupt destabilization is likely to pour in a flood of refugees across the border into China. And this is not something China will want to trigger.
The point is that China regards Korean peninsula as its strategic zone. Even though South Korea is a US ally, its internal politics often has anti-American overtones centered on, among other things, the politics of the unification. Such internal divisions, as well as China’s economic weight, makes China an important factor in South Korean affairs.
But North Korea’s reckless and dangerous nuclear politics is not only making China look helpless, but also pushing South Korea further into the US fold when faced with threats of annihilation from Pyongyang.
No wonder China is hopping mad with Pyongyang’s nuclear brinkmanship.
But, at the same time, they seem averse to putting the squeeze on North Korea for fear of creating an even bigger disaster.
They certainly don’t like the idea of a nuclear neighbor, under a manic Kim Jong-il regime, right on their border.
And they fear that Pyongyang’s headlong embrace of nuclear weaponry is likely to push Japan into becoming a nuclear power too to counter-balance the threat from North Korea.
In other words, Pyongyang is seriously complicating China’s political and strategic regional architecture.
That is why there is a method in North Korea’s madness; knowing that Beijing might huff and puff but it will not blow down Kim’s Jong-il’s house.
Therefore, if the US is looking to China for any effective resolution of North Korea’s nuclear problem, it is likely to be disappointed.
The most China might be able to do is to reconvene another session of the six-nation talks.
But, in the present mode of Pyongyang’s belligerence, even that seems improbable.
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