Asia-Pacific’s highly combustible mix

S.P.SETH

The recent East Asia summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, once again highlighted underlying regional tensions. We will come to that later. But first let us look at the background to all this. It basically stems from concerns about China’s rise, particularly whether or not it will be managed peacefully. Beijing certainly regards it as a peaceful development to correct the historical aberration of China’s humiliation by the colonial powers and Japan during the 19^th and first half of the 20^th century. The establishment of the People’s Republic of China on October 1, 1949, supposedly put an end to it.

Though China’s communist revolution restored the country’s independence and dignity, it didn’t bring to fruition its perceived historical role as the Middle Kingdom that it once was. This was mainly because China remained preoccupied with Mao Zedong’s perpetual revolution. It was not until after Mao’s death in 1976, and Deng Xiaoping’s political ascension a few years later, that China started to build up a strong economy. And in the decades since 1980, China’s economy has increased several folds, its armed forces have got new weaponry, it now has an advanced space program and, above all, the country is brimming with new confidence to restore its perceived historical role of asserting political primacy in the Asia-Pacific region.

Believing that China was once a beacon of light for the region and the world, its new rulers do not have much sympathy with any country or countries that oppose, what it regards, as, its historical right and destiny. There is one problem, though. Which is that between the era of China’s dynastic rulers and now, the process of de-colonization in Asia and elsewhere has seen the emergence of new nations. And they are opposed to the assertion of China’s power, especially when it impinges on their own national interests. In this new world of nation states, territorial claims drawn from the old kingdoms/empires and maps, are contested and resisted, as is happening now in the Asia-Pacific region.

Like the rest of Asia (and, for that matter, Africa) China too was a victim of European colonialism. The Chinese have never forgotten and forgiven their humiliation by European powers and Japan. Ultimately, though, power remains largely the arbiter of relations between nations. With its new-found power and wealth, China is now seeking to assert its primacy, creating potential enemies in its neighbourhood with their competing and contending territorial and sovereign claims.

 The most vociferous, among them, are Vietnam and the Philippines, though others too have overlapping claims to islands in the South China Sea which China claims almost in its entirety.  In Beijing’s view, these countries have been put up to confront China by the United States with its renewed strategy of a “pivot” to Asia, as articulated by President Obama in November 2011 in the Australian parliament during his visit here.

China has sought to reinforce its claims by stamping its passports with its version of the sovereignty that covers South China Sea and the rest, drawing protests from other countries. It has also asserted its right to board and search ships passing through disputed waters. According to reports, China contends that its sovereignty dates back to the Ming dynasty that ruled between 14^th to 17^th centuries, if not even earlier. In other words, China’s sovereignty is incontestable.

These claims have been around ever since the communists came to power in 1949. But China then lacked the power to enforce them. It still is not able to enforce its sovereignty without causing considerable tensions in the region with the potential to lead to military conflict. Beijing would probably have wished the US to remain mired in Iraq and Afghanistan for the next decade or so, enabling it to bring its neighbours, contesting South China Sea islands, to its way of thinking. But this was not to be. And the US, even though drained by its two wars and the continuing financial crisis, still remains the strongest military power in the world. It is determined to play a leading role in the Asia-Pacific region of which it regards itself geopolitically, economically and strategically an integral part.

With a view to maintain its regional primacy, the US is beefing up its regional alliances, creating new strategic connections and projecting forceful economic and political role. This was evidenced at the recent East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, attended by President Obama. The United States, with its regional allies and political partners, would like the South China issue to be debated in regional forums with a view to create an agreed code of conduct for resolving the maritime boundary issue and for the unhindered use of sea lanes for international trade.

China sees a trap in this to regionalize/internationalize the contested nature of South China Sea issue, and is determined not to allow it. And it succeeded in keeping it out of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia Summit by leaning on Cambodia, the host country, to disallow it. But the issue of South China Sea will continue to dog every regional forum and keep regional tensions ticking.

At another level, China and Japan are also embroiled in a maritime dispute which, if not resolved, is equally, if not more, inflammatory. It revolves around the competing claims of sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in East China Sea creating an eyeball-to-eyeball situation between the two countries. It is feeding ultra nationalism on both sides. Indeed in the forthcoming snap election in Japan this month, the newly formed Japan Restoration Party, led by Toru Hashimoto, mayor of Osaka, and Shintaro Ishihara, till recently governor of Tokyo, will be campaigning on a program to revive Japan because: “If Japan keeps going like this [as a weakling], it will sink into a pit and die.” As part of this revival, Japan is urged to rebuild its military strength including, if necessary, acquiring nuclear weapons. In other words, China-Japan issue is not just a political spat between the two countries but a much more dangerous regional confrontation.

There are also unresolved questions between China and Indonesia over the Natuna Islands in the South China Sea.  The Spratly and Paracel islands in South China Sea are subject to overlapping sovereignty claims involving China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia. And there is, as mentioned earlier, the China-Japan dispute in the East China Sea. This is quite a list. But when some of these countries are also US allies, the situation is even more combustible.