US, China and Philippines

S P SETH

The Philippines President, Rodrigo Duterte’s, recent China visit created international headlines, as he seemed to upbend his country’s long time relationship with the United States. Duterte was angry at the US criticism of his no-holds-barred policy of eliminating druggies, both users and pushers, and sought to pre-emptively warn off Obama against raising the issue on the sidelines of a regional conference both were attending. Duterte felt that Obama would have no right to lecture the president of a sovereign country like the Philippines. Therefore, there were signs that the new political order in the Philippines was going to be different, indeed radically different, when it came to the country’s relationship with the United States. And this would be reflected in refashioning Manila’s relationship with China.

And if Duterte’s rhetoric during his China visit were truly reflected in the Philippines’ relationship with both China and the United States, by way of a new friendly relationship with China and aggressive disawoval of long-standing multifaceted and deep ties with the United States, it would not only shake up bilateral Washington-Manila connection but also the existing regional political and security architecture.

And to understand this, one need to go over, even if cursorily, what the visiting  president said in Beijing, unless one were to simply dismiss President Duterte as raving mad to radically alter his country’s long ties with the US, including their security alliance, going as far back as early fifties. More so, when the Philippines’ relations with China had earlier soured so badly over the issue of sovereignty claims in South China Sea that Manila had taken Beijing to the arbitration tribunal in the Hague that had upheld its claim. Duterte became president against such backdrop of hostility between the Philippines and China, with the US committed to the Philippines all the way.

Despite all this, the new president, during his China visit, declared with gusto, it would appear, his country’s “separation’ from the United States. It is worth quoting Duterte at some length on his views and the proposed policy change he  indicated. He said, “No more American influence. No more American [military exercises]. It’s time to say goodbye, my friend. Your stay in my country was for your own benefit.” He is nursing strong personal hurt over criticism of his policy of eliminating the country’s drug culture as he said, “I will not go to America any more. I will just be insulted there”, once again referring to the US President Barack Obama as the “son of a whore”.

And he seemed to blame the US for the Philippines’ anti-China policy before he became president. In his words, “What kept us from China was not our making. I will chart a new course.” On the contentious issue of South China sovereignty, his new policy will delight China and take the wind out of the US’ strategy of building up a regional coalition to contain China. Duterte simply dismissed the Hague court award against China as “a piece of paper with four corners.” Elaborating, he said, “The arbitral award gives us the right. China has the historical right. And they’re insisting. In this situation, do we argue, or do we just talk? I would say, let us put it off to some other day.”

 In his speech at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Duterte heaped insult, unusual in diplomatic parlance, on the Americans. He said, “Americans are loud, sometimes rowdy. Their larynx is not adjusted to civility”, even as he mimicked American accent. He called them “discourteous people”, adding that it is wise not to do business with them because “that is the surest way of losing your money.”

And he seemingly announced a new international alignment to include China, Russia and the Philippines. Duterte said, “I’ve realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will go to Russia and talk to Putin and tell him there are three of us against the world---China, Philippines and Russia. It’s the only way.” His four-day visit to china included 400 business people. And China didn’t disappoint him; on paper at least as, according to the Philippines’ trade secretary, Ramon Lopez, deals worth $13.5 billion dollars were signed during the trip. The idea seems to be to restructure Philippines’ economic relationship to tap into Chinese investments in infrastructure, and an expanded access into that market.

This kind of proposed restructuring of an overall relationship, where the Philippines has before been in a virtual dependency situation with the United States from colonial times since 1898 and then after gaining independence in 1946, is rather unusual. Therefore, it will be a difficult, even problematic exercise. So far, according to reports in the US press, the US hasn’t been formally notified of the level or kind of “separation” President Duterte has publicly announced. And going by the long established ties between the two countries over decades, it will be a herculean task for Philippines’ establishment to root out the old connections and replace them with a China centric order.

Despite resentment at many levels in the Philippines over the US’ perceived condescending and arrogant behavior, into which Duterte is tapping as well as his own personal experience at times, the US is a known quantity with many people in the Philippines enmeshed into multiple ties and experiences. The New York Times quoted Roilo Golez, national security adviser to a former president in the Philippines as saying, “ Practically every family here has a relative in the U.S. They don’t dream of going to China and living there.” About 4 million Filipinos and Filipino-Americans are said to live in the United States, and their remittances back home are an important part of the country’s economy. And another major sector of the economy, call centres largely serving American companies, reportedly employ more than one million Filipinos.

For Duterte to imagine that the Philippines might be able to almost swap its present relationship with the US and replace it with China, is likely to be a painful experience, to put it mildly. And, in his sober moments, Duterte seems aware of some of the difficulties and dangers. On return home from Beijing, for instance, he reportedly sought to soften his call for “separation” to clarify that it didn’t mean cutting diplomatic relations: “Because the Filipinos in the United States will kill him”, apparently pointing to the magnitude of the linkages between the people of the two countries.

However, Duterte’s Beijing visit and his call for reshaping his country’s relations to make China the centre of gravity is likely to have important repurcushions for regional politics. It might set a precedent for China’s other neighbours, with issues of contested sovereignty, to see the writing on the wall, as if, and make their own accommodation with Beijing.

Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.

Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au