Flashpoint
South China Sea
S P
SETH
Nobody really knows how the South China Sea sovereignty issue will
be sorted out. It featured in one way or the other at the recent Association of
South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting and the follow up East Asia summit in
Laos. So far, China is resolute about its sovereignty claims regarding
islands/islets/rocks that scatter around these waters. Indeed, it has dredged
out new ones and has justified building airfields and other military structures
as security measures to defend its sovereignty. Beijing has flatly rejected the
recent ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in Hague, which favoured
the Philippines that had sought the court’s arbitration on China’s construction
of military structures on Mischief Reef in the Spratly archipelago, claimed by
Manila. In a sweeping judgment on China’s sovereignty claims, it rejected its
“nine dash line” that tends to turn almost all of South China Sea into its
exclusive lake.
An adverse finding from Hague court was expected but not with such
vehemence. It said, “The Tribunal concluded that there was no legal basis for
China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within
the ‘nine-dash line’”. And it found that the artificial islands that China has
been building did not create extended maritime zones as they couldn’t naturally
sustain human habitation. It, therefore declared that “certain sea areas [which
China claimed] are within the excusive economic zone” of the rival claimant,
the Philippines. And worse still, the tribunal found that “China had caused
severe harm to the coral reef environment and violated its obligation to
preserve and protect fragile ecosystems and the habitat of depleted,
threatened, or endangered species.”
Not surprisingly, and considering that China had boycotted the
tribunal, Beijing said that the ruling of the court, “is null and void and has
no binding force.” China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, said that the ruling has
placed the South China Sea “in a dangerous situation of intensifying tension
and confrontation.” And he called the unilaterally initiated (by the
Philippines) case and the resultant ruling a “sheer political farce in the
disguise of law…” He added that, “The attempts of any power to harm or deny
China’s sovereignty and maritime interests in any form will be futile.”
And to this end, China is not averse to showing its military muscle
by making it clear that it would use all the necessary measures to protect its
sovereignty in South China as it sees it. China has been holding military
exercises, and reportedly even cut off outside access to parts of South China
Sea to host these exercises. It has also conducted combat air patrols in the
region, which are slated to become a “regular” feature in the future, according
to its state news agency, Xinhua. In other words, Beijing is steadfast on its
position and is leaving no one in doubt that it means what it says.
China’s regional neighbours, at odds with China over the sovereignty
issue, are reluctant to put up a united front. The Association of South East
Asian Nations (ASEAN), for instance, has not been able to put up a joint front on
this issue as they look to China for trade and investment. Besides, China is
politically and militarily powerful. The diplomatic option, sought to be exercised
by the Philippines, has apparently failed, as China doesn’t accept the Hague
court’s authority and writ. In any case, China’s position is clear that it has
sovereignty over the islands and over much of the South China Sea waters.
The only way to confront China would be to team up with the United
States. The US is trying to rally regional countries to exercise their right of
freedom of navigation through Chinese-claimed waters and islands, which the US
has done on a few occasions and is determined to continue doing. China has said
that it might declare an air-defence identification zone requiring aircraft
passing through the area to identify themselves. However, the US and its
allies, Australia, for instance, might ignore this, potentially leading to
military confrontation.
Beijing believes that the US is creating trouble in China’s backyard.
It regards the US as an outside power that should stay out of regional affairs.
But for the US ‘interference’, in Beijing’s view, the region will be peaceful
based on China’s ‘historical’ sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and
much of the waters surrounding them. The US, on the other hand, rejects China’s
contention that it is an outside power seeking to stir up trouble, citing its
large Pacific coast and vital economic, strategic and political interests.
During a recent Australia visit, US vice-president, Joe Biden, was adamant that
the US would remain a Pacific power. As if addressing China and regional
doubters about the US stamina and determination, he said in Sydney, “We are not
going anywhere. And that is vital because our presence in the region… is
essential to maintaining peace and stability, without which the economic growth
and prosperity I believe would falter.”
And he added, “America is the linchpin and we want to ensure the sea
lanes are secure, the skies remain open. That is how to maintain the free flow
of commerce, that is the life blood of this region.” To fortify the US resolve,
Biden went on to say, “We have the most capable ground forces in the world and
unmatched ability to project naval and air power to any and every corner of the
globe, and simultaneously.” Talking specifically of US commitment to Pacific
region, Biden said, “And we’ve committed to put over 60 per cent of our fleet
and our most advanced military capabilities in the Pacific by 2020.”
Biden’s choice of Australia to reiterate this commitment is
interesting, as it was here that President Obama had announced the US “pivot to
Asia” in 2011 during his visit to Australia. In a sense, it is designed to
bolster the flagging confidence of regional countries that are not keen to
confront China, being unsure of the US’ resolve and staying power. There is a
sense, rightly or wrongly, that the US is a declining power and is
over-stretched, while China is in ascendance. As if to calm some of the frayed
nerves in Australia about US politics with Donald Trump as Republican
presidential nominee, Biden said, “Don’t worry about our election. The better
angels in America will prevail.” But that is more a prayer than a policy
prescription.
The point, though, is that both China and the US are committed to
their respective positions. Which is that China has sovereignty over the South
China Sea islands and will defend it with all its power. The US, on the other
hand, is determined to challenge this by exercising the right of free
navigation through Chinese-claimed South China Sea islands and surrounding
waters. And if they mean what they say, one cannot rule out military
confrontation at some point, with
unpredictable results.
Note: This article was first printed in the Daily Times.
Contact; sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au
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