China-Japan heightened tensions

S P SETH

The spat between China and Japan over their maritime dispute is entering a dangerous phase with potential to ignite a military confrontation. China lodged an official protest with Japan the other day when its ships entered an area in the Pacific and disrupted Chinese live ammunition military exercises. According to Colonel Yang Yujun, a defence ministry spokesman, “Not only did this interfere with our normal exercises, but endangered the safety of our ships and aircraft, which could have led to a miscalculation or mishap or other sudden incident.” He called it “a highly dangerous provocation” leading China’s defence ministry to make “solemn representations to the Japanese side.”

Both sides are determined to maintain their ground, with Japan insisting that it wouldn’t allow China to change the maritime status quo by military means. To this end, Tokyo is beefing up its armed strength and marshaling together a regional front, as China also has contested maritime boundary disputes with some other regional countries. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reportedly said recently that, “There are concerns that China is attempting to change the status quo by force [in Asia], rather than by rule of law. But if China opts to take that path, then it won’t be able to emerge peacefully.” And he added, “So it shouldn’t take that path, and many nations expect Japan to strongly express that view. And they hope that as a result, China will take responsible action in the international community.”

Prime Minister Abe’s statement would seem to suggest two things. First, that Japan is anointing itself as the leader of a regional coalition to forewarn China against any military action to change the status quo. It is not clear if Abe has the authorization of the countries concerned to be speaking on their behalf, although he did have a series of summits with regional leaders recently. But, in the absence of any repudiation by countries contesting China’s maritime/territorial claims, it would seem that a political regional front, at the very least, is shaping up against China. Second, Tokyo has made it abundantly clear that it will refuse to budge from its position, even backing it up with military means if necessary. Even though the US is maintaining silence on saber rattling between China and Japan, it is clear that the two countries are allies with mutual obligations in a military conflict. In other words, the on-going brinkmanship has consequences that go beyond Japan-China bilateral relationship.

Ever since Shinzo Abe took over as Prime Minister last year, Japan has toughened its resolve to face up to China’s assertive claims of sovereignty over the Senkaku islands, which China calls Diaoyu. He recently said that “the security environment facing Japan is becoming ever more severe.” Japan is taking concrete measures to beef up its defences. It has raised defense expenditure, as has China over the last few years. It is scrambling jet fighters reacting to Chinese air and naval visits near disputed islands, and is threatening to shoot down Chinese drones if flying over Japanese air space. China says that it would be an act of war, and so it goes on. As part of its defence preparedness, Japan recently unveiled its biggest warship since WW11, which is more like an aircraft carrier. The ship reportedly has a flight deck nearly 250 metres long, and is designed to carry up to 14 helicopters. Its unveiling, in the context of growing tensions with China, gives it a special meaning.

Japan, at the same time, is keen to amend its pacifist constitution, which prohibits it from waging war. Although it has a defence force, it is supposed to be purely defensive. The government is slowly trying to get around Article 9 of the constitution that ties it down to a pacifist role. Indeed, Taro Aso, Japan’s deputy prime minister, recently suggested to follow the example of the Nazi Germany by simply scuttling the constitution, imposed on Japan by the victorious United States after WW11. That raised some hackles and the minister backed off, saying he was quoted out of context.

The deep hostility between China and Japan is rooted in contemporary history, starting with the Sino-Japanese war of 1894-95 with China roundly defeated and Japan emerging as a new modern power.  This came on top of China’s defeat and humiliation earlier in two Opium Wars of 1839-1842 and 1856-1860 at the hands of the British, with China exposed as a waning power and an easy prey. This encouraged Japan to make its own bid to gain territorial and commercial advantage from a declining China and hence the 1894-95 war. Japan subsequently went on to attack China during the thirties occupying Manchuria, and making further inroads during WW11 with reports of atrocities committed on Chinese people.

The bitter memories of those times are fresh in a rejuvenated and resurgent China, now keen to reclaim its ‘lost’ territories that once were supposedly part of its vast kingdom, including almost the entire Asia-Pacific region. While Japan is probably China’s most hated regional neighbor, Beijing’s maritime disputes with other regional countries are creating strategic convergence between Tokyo and some of the regional countries, like the Philippines and Vietnam, who had earlier hated Japan as much for its war crimes. China is not happy over it but attaches more importance to its national project of unifying its ‘lost’ kingdom from a bygone era. And this muddies the waters further, making it a regional issue rather than simply a bilateral China-Japan affair.

Japan is equally adamant about its territorial integrity. After its defeat in WW11 and occupation by the US, Japan was a lost country needing direction. It was also the time when the Cold War had started pitting the United States and its Western allies against the Soviet bloc. And Japan was coopted into the US bloc as an independent state but with its foreign and security policies under the US direction. With China part of the Soviet bloc in the early stages of the Cold War, Japan obviously was favoured in its, then dormant, territorial disputes. Since then these disputes have come into the open and China blames the United States for encouraging Japan on its course.

Some Chinese commentators often make the argument that the US has no business being in the Asia-Pacific region and fueling tensions. The counter argument, and indeed the US policy, is that the United States is as much an Asia-Pacific country with its Pacific coast and trade and strategic interests as China or any other regional country. In other words, the US “pivot” to Asia is a valid policy after more than a decade of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. That makes US alliances with Japan and other Asia-Pacific countries part of its strategic axis. Which makes the ongoing China-Japan brinkmanship all the more dangerous. Unless there is a diplomatic resolution of the contested maritime disputes in the region, it is like living near a volcano that might erupt any time. 

Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.

Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au