Asia-Pacific’s great power game

By S.P.SETH

While China continues to have problems with some of its Southeast Asian neighbors over competing claims of sovereignty over the South China Sea waters, the United States is going ahead with strengthening its naval presence in the Pacific.

The backdrop to this is a threat from a rising China to edge out the United States from the region and assert its dominance. The US is not taking it lying down as it regards Asia-Pacific region strategically and economically important to its national interests.

Some recent developments highlight the dangers. When Barack Obama visited Australia last November, the two countries agreed to upgrade their defense ties with Australia providing facilities in its north for the basing and rotation of US troops.

The US will also have naval and air facilities in Australia’s north and west, apparently to deal with any threat from China. At the same time, there are reports that the Australian territory of Cocos Island in the Indian Ocean might be readied for surveillance of China’s growing military presence in the region.

China has reacted angrily, as pointed out in an earlier article, conveying its displeasure strongly to Australia’s Foreign Minister Bob Carr, when he recently visited China, calling it a throw back to the Cold War era.

The reaction was even more pointed when Australia’s Defense Minister followed his ministerial colleague on a China visit.   Defense Minister Stephen Smith and his entourage reportedly left their mobile phones and laptops in Hong Kong before proceeding on their official China visit.

This precaution was considered necessary because such devices were believed to have been compromised during previous ministerial visits to China.  

If China were engaging in spying on visiting Australian dignitaries, its main reason would be to access important information about its defense ties with the United States and to what extent these are directed against China.

 It caused quite a flutter here when a new book by a an Australian journalist reportedly revealed that Australia’s 2009 defense white paper contained a secret unpublished section that contained alarming war scenarios with China.

Stephen Smith has, of course, dismissed these claims. But the point is that there is a lot of distrust and misunderstanding on both sides.

 Australia is engaged in a delicate balancing act between China and the USA. China is now Australia’s biggest trading partner with much of its export income from exports to China.

Concurrently, the United States is its closest strategic partner, viewed as underwriting its security from a regional threat, apparently from China. Australia’s upgraded security ties with the US are a form of insurance.

It is feared that China might at some point be tempted to do to Australia what Japan did to China and other regional countries before and during WW11. Which is to attack and occupy the country to access steady and adequate supplies of raw materials for its economic growth.

This is reflected in growing popular opposition in Australia to Chinese investments in resource industry (like mining), and agricultural land.

Peter Hartcher, international editor of the Sydney Morning Herald, cautioned in a recent column that such opposition to Chinese investments was dangerous, revoking “Japan’s policy of occupying its nearest neighbors in the 1930s [that] was transformed into an all-out war after the US imposed a trade embargo on it. The Pacific War followed and Japan threatened Australia with invasion until the US defeated it…”

This caution, by itself, is indicative of the deep fear in Australia of China’s growing power and the consequent rationale of an even stronger security connection with the US.

Another important development is the growing warmth in US-Vietnam relations. Although the two countries were bitter enemies not long ago, the turn around in their relations is an extraordinary development. 

An important reason is their shared concern about China’s assertive role in the region, especially its sovereignty claim over the South China Sea.

The US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s recent visit to the Cam Ranh Bay base in Vietnam, once a US naval base during the Vietnam War, is a testimony to the new warmth in their relationship. 

During his Vietnam visit, he didn’t mince his words about the US’s desire to make Cam Ranh Bay once again into a US base, but this time against China, if need be.

He declared that, “It will be particularly important to be able to work with partners like Vietnam; to be able to use harbors like this as we move our ships from our ports on the [US] West Coast, [and] our stations here in the Pacific.”  

Though Vietnam is playing down any US military connection, it is significant that the two countries, last year, signed an agreement on defense cooperation.

It is pertinent to point out that Cam Ranh Bay is one of the South China Sea’s best natural harbors, and hence an ideal spot to watch and impede China’s moves in these contested waters.

Not surprisingly, the deputy chief of general staff of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) believes that, “The South China Sea is not America’s business… It is between China and its neighbors.”

This is precisely the problem because there are multiple regional claimants to South China Sea islands, Vietnam among them. There was recently a naval spat when Vietnam accused Chinese ships of cutting the cables of a survey ship it was deploying in its (claimed also by China) waters.

It is therefore easy to see the shared strategic ground between the US and Vietnam in regard to South China Sea sovereignty issue.

As South China Sea is a busy shipping lane for trade and passage of naval ships, it is feared that China might interfere with such passage claiming it as its national highway.

In the midst of all these regional tensions (as also between China and the Philippines) the US has announced that it would be increasing the size of its naval deployment in the Pacific from 50 to 60 per cent.

Panetta has reportedly said the US would maintain six aircraft carriers in the region, complemented by the arrival of Joint Strike Fighters and the Virginia-class fast-attack submarines. China too is modernizing and expanding its naval forces, including “carrier killer” anti-ship missiles and submarines.

 Apart from China and the USA, some of the regional countries too are engaged in building up their navies. All in all, there is enough happening in terms of naval acquisition and deployment to cause real concern for regional stability. And if one add to it Taiwan and North Korea, the picture looks even more depressing.

In this great game of power re-alignment in the Asia-Pacific region, Panetta has emphasized: “Make no mistake—in a steady, deliberate and sustainable way---the United States military is rebalancing and brings enhanced capabilities to this vital region.”

A Chinese strategist doesn’t share Panetta’s enthusiasm. His take is that, “Even though the US has a wonderful plan of pivoting, rebalancing or whatever into Asia-Pacific affairs…I really doubt they can find the trillions of dollars that is needed.”

Whatever the future, and it doesn’t seem terribly inviting, the great power game in the Asia-Pacific region is truly begun.