US dependence on China shortsighted

By S.P.SETH

North Korea continues to defy the world on almost everything. The latest was the sinking of a South Korean navy ship with a North Korean torpedo, killing 46 crews. Pyongyang denies the accusation, even though it has been investigated and confirmed by an international enquiry.

Even if one were to give some credence to Pyongyang’s denial, its history of killing its South Korean targets at different times in the past would suggest that the sinking of the South Korean ship is in character with the regime’s propensity to commit murders and create mayhem.

However, all the brouhaha created by this serious act of criminality seems to have died down. After making a big show of protests, and follow up action (with the support of the United States), Seoul too has gone relatively quiet.

There are two reasons for this. First, China has put a damper on getting involved in a punitive action against Pyongyang. Both the United States and South Korea were hopeful, that faced with the evidence of North Korean involvement, Beijing might line up with the rest of the world to take action against the Kim Jong-il’s notorious regime.

Therefore, they put much store by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s recent visit to Seoul to examine the issue. But after a flurry of meetings in South Korea, Premier Wen wasn’t keen on blaming the North. He instead favored a policy of restraint to calm the situation.

In other words, China seemed to put both sides of the Korean peninsula on an equal footing in relation to the crisis. Apparently, China’s reluctance to buy into the inter-Korean crisis had a dampening effect on both South Korea and its ally-the United States.

Premier Wen’s South Korea trip has emphasized China’ special security interests in the Korean peninsula. It had apparently heard the North Korean version from the Dear Leader when Kim Jong-il visited China last month in a special train and was warmly welcomed by its top leadership. Therefore, it shouldn’t be surprising that Wen refused to take sides.

The United States might find comfort in the critical observations of some Chinese academics bemoaning that North Korea has high-jacked China’s foreign policy in the Korean peninsula. But, they argue, that this cannot be sustained and, sooner or later, China would have had enough of it. It might be part of the good cop and bad cop routine because nothing about China is all that simple.

Another reason for the calming of the rhetoric in the Korean situation is that the South Korea’s ruling part has suffered a drubbing in the country’s local and regional elections.

Seoul made a lot of noise (even cancelling the few economic ties it has had with the other side) over the question of its ship’s sinking. They believed that a South Korean government standing up to North Korea’s bullying would be a popular move.

After all, the present conservative government came to power promising a hard line. But it would appear that its strong rhetoric hasn’t gone well with many of its people. And the government has lowered the decibel level.

And where China is concerned, North Korea seems to get away with even the murder of Chinese citizens across their border in Liaoning province. According to a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “On the morning of June 4, some residents of Dandong, in Liaoning province, were shot by a DPRK border guard on suspicion of crossing the border for trade activities, leaving three dead and one injured.”

China’s response was quite passive, simply raising “a solemn representation with the DPRK” and awaiting investigation. It will obviously be sorted out in a low-key fashion.

Whichever one looks, China’s role in the Korean peninsula is considered critical but Beijing is not inclined to effectively put pressure on North Korea. And without that there cannot be any forward movement, be it the issue of the sinking of the South Korean ship and, more importantly still, its nuclear program.

At one point, when North Korea was saber-rattling with its atomic tests Beijing seemed quite worried, and took a common stand in the UN Security Council to slap sanctions on North Korea. But it was weak on implementing the sanctions, thus continuing to provide lifeline for North’s regime.

China apparently has come to the conclusion that if it went all the way in denying North Korea its essential supplies, the regime would collapse and with it the country itself. Which would flood China with a horde of refugees creating all sorts of unpredictable problems.

Since then, the internal situation in North Korea has only got worse. The Dear Leader Kim Jong-il’s health seems to have further deteriorated, which the Chinese must have had time to assess during his recent trip to Beijing.

The succession issue, with his youngest son supposedly the favored one to take over, doesn’t appear to have been sorted out. The country is in a prolonged state of food scarcity with widespread hunger. Even though hope and morale are very low, there are no signs of rebellion of any sort.

With the government exercising total control, it is not surprising that people are afraid to challenge the regime. However, all the signs of a collapse from within are there.

But China’s economic and political support is delaying the inevitable day. China is, of course, worried about the influx of refugees if North Korea were to collapse. But that is going to happen any way sooner or later.

If such a reading of the situation were correct, it would be in China’s interest to work out with the United States and other countries a comprehensive refugee policy to share the burden.

But China obviously is not keen on a regional or global approach, because it regards Korean peninsula as its own strategic patch. It doesn’t want to involve other countries to further muddy the situation; when the US already has troops’ presence as well as military alliance with South Korea.

Despite this, the United States is depending more and more on China, believing that the US and China have shared non-proliferation objectives. That may well be true in a limited sense but China sees it in a larger context.

The US doesn’t share a border with North Korea. A murky and dangerous situation arising from an unstable North Korea might trigger a US military response on behalf of its South Korean ally from a perceived or actual attack from Pyongyang.

Therefore, for the US to imagine a shared or common strategic objective between itself and China in regard to North Korea is shortsighted. For China, geopolitically, Korean peninsula is its backyard.

For the US, on the other hand, North Korea (like Iran), is part of its global policy to stop nuclear proliferation, as well as to support South Korea against a potential or real military attack from the North.

While it makes sense to have China on its side to stop North Korea’s nuclear proliferation, it doesn’t make sense, though, to depend largely on China to promote US strategic goals.