China’s paranoia over Taiwan and Tibet

By S.P.SETH

China is very angry at the United States. It is angry because Washington is selling defensive weapons to Taiwan.

The United States has also incurred China’s displeasure because it continues to treat the Dalai Lama with consideration and regard; evident from the recent meeting between the Tibetan leader and President Barack Obama undeterred by Chinese protests.

Let us consider Taiwan first.

In the past too, China has been unhappy about the US sale of weapons to Taiwan. But this time there is a difference. Its tone is much harsher, threatening the US with consequences for the bilateral relationship.

But the United States is only doing what it has done in the past, that is: it is fulfilling its obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to sell weapons to defend against any military attack from China.

And this is even more relevant today when China is constantly increasing its missile deployment (targeting Taiwan), now exceeding 1000 missiles. It is said to be increasing at the rate of 100 missiles a year.

These couldn’t obviously be meant to defend China from Taiwan.

Beijing contends that Taiwan belongs to China, and the US is interfering in its internal affairs.

In other words, the US should facilitate its sovereignty claim to Taiwan.

It is a dangerous way of pursuing its objective if the choice China presents to Taiwan is of either accepting its sovereignty or else face the consequences from a military attack.

The US’ Taiwan Relations Act was meant precisely to ward off such an eventuality.

Washington doesn’t have any objection against peaceful unification, based on the will of the people of Taiwan.

But China is opposed to any exercise of popular mandate in Taiwan; rightly fearing that its people would prefer to remain a sovereign nation while still pursuing peaceful relations with China over the entire gamut of their mutually beneficial ties.

Beijing, however, has pre-empted this possibility (as far as it is concerned) by announcing unilaterally that Taiwan is part of China, and following it up with passing domestic legislation to this effect.

In other words, any formal declaration of sovereignty by Taiwan will lead to its forcible annexation by China.

The main obstacle in China’s path is the United States, with its Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, to help Taiwan defend itself against a Chinese invasion.

Therefore, Beijing has protested every time Taiwan has been sold US weapons. But this time China is more belligerent.

For instance, it has threatened trade sanctions against US companies involved in the sale of weapons to Taiwan.

Why is it so? Because: there would seem to be a growing belief in China that the United States is a declining power. And it might be pushed around.

It is a convenient of asserting China’s great power status by snubbing the US.

A recent example was at the Copenhagen climate change conference where the Chinese Premier didn’t turn up at a venue hosted by President Obama.

Whether or not the US is a declining power is academic at the moment. Despite its many problems, the United States still remains the world’s largest economy and, militarily, the world’s most powerful nation.

Therefore, for China to treat the United States in a cavalier fashion can be dangerous and counter-productive.

In the case of Taiwan, for instance, Beijing might think that its new international status and military power would be a deterrent enough for the United States to stay out of the Taiwan Strait imbroglio, if one were to develop.

But for China to over-estimate its power and under-estimate the United States might turn out to be its greatest strategic blunder.

Another issue, which makes China very angry at the United States, is the consideration shown to the Dalai Lama at the highest level.

President Barack Obama received him during his recent US visit to China’s great annoyance and anger.

As in the case of US arms sales to Taiwan, there is a harsher and belligerent tone in this regard.

For China, the Dalai Lama is a traitor to the motherland. He is regarded as a monk in wolf’s clothing.

By any dispassionate analysis, though, China appears terribly paranoid about the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan issue.

In all the on-off meetings between the Dalai Lama’s representatives and the Chinese side, his delegation has simply pressed for autonomy for Tibet.

In other words, there is no disagreement on the core issue of China’s sovereignty. Regarding the details and the quantum of autonomy, it shouldn’t be beyond China’s ability to accommodate the Tibetan leader.

After all, China will continue to have control over Tibet’s defense, and foreign policies as well as common Chinese currency.

The crux of the matter is that Beijing doesn’t trust the Dalai Lama.

The Dalai Lama is 74 and the Chinese are wishing him an early ascension to heaven/hell. They can then appoint their own Dalai Lama and, presto, the Tibetan problem will all be over.

They consider him the source of all China’s problems on Tibet as the instigator of unrest in the region, as well as the rallying point of international support.

During his recent Australian tour he gave some inkling of what might be the future shape of the Tibetan movement in exile.

In an informal chat with an Australian journalist, Joyce Morgan, he said that, in the short term, (while he is still alive) it might be possible to appoint a senior figure as an interim leader just “like a deputy Dalai Lama”

He maintained, though, that this was yet decided.

Regarding a future Dalai Lama (his re-incarnation after his death), his view is that: since the very purpose of a reincarnation is to continue the unfinished work of the previous incarnation, it is only logical that that I will be born in exile to continue my unfinished work.

In other words, Dalai Lama is already de-legitimizing Beijing’s plans to appoint their own Dalai Lama following his death.

Considering his enormous moral authority (likely to become legendry after his death), China will have to continue wrestling with the Tibetan question.

On the other hand, since Dalai Lama is so keen to resolve the Tibetan issue on the basis of autonomy (with Tibet still remaining part of China), it makes more sense for Beijing to sort out the issue with him, while he is still alive.

In other words, whether it is Taiwan or Tibet, China’s problems there are self-inflicted based on its chauvinism, paranoia and stubbornness.

Therefore, blaming the United States for its own mistakes will only complicate matters.