Xi
Jinping’s China
S P
SETH
The Party is over—that is the 19h National Congress of the Communist
Party of China. It was done with fanfare, though it was widely expected to
deliver a thumping endorsement of Xi Jinping, now in the same league as Mao
Zedong. It was sad to see his predecessors, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, trailing
behind Xi in the staged procession on the dais looking like pathetic figures
from a distant past acknowledging, by their presence, their downgrading and by
the same act bestowing even greater legitimacy on the new order enshrining Xi’s
pre-eminence. At one time, in the TV pictures, Hu Jintao sought to talk to XI
about something or the other but the new ‘emperor’ just had no time for his
immediate predecessor.
From all the accounts of Xi’s great achievements in the five years
he has been the general secretary of the CPC and president of China, it would
appear that the intervening period between Deng Xiaoping’s death and Xi’s
ascension was time lost. And before the party conference, there was a lot of
build up to highlight all these achievements. Indeed, an advertising supplement
from Chinese authorities in the Sydney Morning Herald featured a report of an
entire exhibition at the Beijing Exhibition Hall on September 25. The report
said, “The exhibition showcased the country’s progress over the past five years
under the leadership of the CPC with Mr Xi as the core.” With Xi at the “core”,
he is now the personification of the CPC and, for that matter, the state
because the two tend to be indistinguishable. And he has a Dream to make China
great again.
Xi Jinping now has his own, “Thought on Socialism with Chinese
Characteristics for a New Era” enshrined in the Party constitution. And this
will be: “A guide to action for the entire party and all the Chinese people to
strive for.” And with this as a guide, China will achieve global leadership by
the middle of the century, with CPC still at the helm of affairs. There will be
none of this ‘nonsense’ about Western democracy, human rights, freedom of
speech and that kind of stuff. China will strive for social stability and
orderly growth.
In his speech to the National Congress, Xi sought to broadly lay
down China’s broad trajectory. He said that now that China had met the basic
needs of its people, it would next work to become a “great modern socialist
country” and, by 2035, a global leader in innovation. A second phase, of
becoming a global leader in “national strength and international influence”,
would take until the middle of the century.
This will go hand-in-hand with transitioning China from rapid growth
to high quality development. Which would mean integrating advanced
manufacturing, internet, big data and artificial intelligence into the “real
economy.” In all this hoopla, there was no mention of the other China of nearly
500 million people, about 40 per cent of China’ population, that live on less
than $5.50 per day, according to the World Bank.
China has undoubtedly made great economic strides. But it is
necessary to keep a balanced perspective, as pointed out by the governor of
People’s Bank of China, Zhou Xiochuan, who has reportedly said, “If we are too
optimistic when things go smoothly, tensions build up, which could lead to a
sharp correction, what we call ‘Minsky moment’”, referring to the late American
economist, Hyman Minsky who cautioned against too much money in the system
fueling speculation that might lead to financial collapse. Zhou said that
China’s debt was very high. According to the World Bank, China’s overall debt
to GDP ratio, both public and private, was 304 per cent. Which led financial
rating agencies, Moody and Standard and Poor to downgrade China’ sovereign debt
rating.
Be that as it may, China is determined to push ahead. In the area of
global fight against climate change, for instance, Xi promised a “revolution in
energy production” by building an energy sector that was “clean, low carbon,
safe and efficient”. At a time when Trump is dumping climate change and open
markets, China is promoting its credentials.
XI was very emphatic on the question of safeguarding China’
sovereign interests with a modernizing military force. He said that, “No one
should expect China to swallow anything that undermines its interests…”, like China’s
“steady progress” of construction of islands in the South China Sea. Dwelling
on China’s “core” national assets, Xi
issued a warning against Taiwan’s independence in any form.
Within the country, he announced the continuation of the anti-corruption
campaign, which has helped to get rid of his political foes.
And as of now, with the Party Congress now over, Xi is the
undisputed ruler of China, with a Standing Committee and Politburo ready to do
his bidding. Indeed, he has not even chosen or announced his political
successor who, by convention, should succeed him after his second term, in
2022. Which has given currency to the view that Xi might choose to stay on as
the party’s general secretary and the country’s president for an indeterminate
period.
During Xi’s presidency, what has perhaps attracted most attention
internationally is his much trumpeted One Belt, One Road project to connect the
world through a network of road, rail, air, and maritime channels, with all
ending up in China. It is the new vision to revive China’s glory as part of the
Chinese Dream, with China once again as the Middle Kingdom. With China prepared
to lend money for many of these incipient projects, it has excited interest and
excitement among some countries.
But Australia has chosen to stay out of it for strategic
reasons. Interestingly, Lobsang Sangay,
who was elected Tibet’s political leader by Tibetan diaspora some years ago,
evoked his homeland’s example as a warning to the misplaced enthusiasm about
this much hyped up Chinese project. Speaking recently at the National Press
Club here in Canberra, he reportedly cautioned Australia, and by implication
other countries, against the Chinese sponsored One Belt, one Road project, citing
Tibet as a case study of how it was annexed through one such highway project.
Sangay’s address is worth quoting at some length.
He said, “If you understand the Tibetan story, the Chinese
government [before the military takeover in the fifties] started building a
road—our first ever highway in Tibet.
“Now we were promised peace and prosperity with the highway, and our
parents and grand parents joined in building the road… so my parents told me
the Chinese soldiers with guns were so polite, so nice, the kids used to taunt
them and taunt them, they always smiled… Then they built the road.
“Once the road reached Lhasa—the capital city of Tibet--- first
trucks came, then tanks came. Soon, Tibet was occupied.”
He continued, “Then another strategy they deployed was divide and
rule, co-opting our ruling elite… They were paid, I think, in Australian context,
huge consultation fees [a reference to how China is using this strategy in
Australia to co-opt some of its elites].”
He elaborated: “So what you see in Australia and around the world—co-optation
of ruling elites, getting high consultation fees, business leaders supporting
the Chinese line of argument---we have seen all that in Tibet. It started with
the road. So that was the consequence of One Belt, One Road in Tibet.” And now
it will be the world. Sixty-eight countries reportedly have signed up with the
Chinese project and Beijing is lining up more countries. The estimated cost is
anywhere from $1 trillion to 4 trillion.
Take Pakistan’s case. The Dawn newspaper exposed a detailed 231-page
Chinese plan for its 15-year infrastructure roll out in Pakistan. Dawn’s
Khurram Husain described it (as quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald}, as “a
deep and broad-based penetration of most sectors of Pakistan’s economy as well
as its society by Chinese enterprises and culture.”